The Iran war is impacting the global economy
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By Leigh Thomas PARIS, March 26 (Reuters) - The escalating conflict in the Middle East has knocked the global economy off a stronger growth path, the OECD warned on Thursday, as a near-halt in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz threatens to push inflation sharply higher.
The forecast is a sharp step up from the prior projection of 2.8%. Moreover, it is much higher than the 2.7% Fed officials estimated.
The world economy’s first signs of a synchronized shock emerged in business surveys revealing how the Iran war’s fallout is crippling growth momentum and stoking prices.
Events in the Middle East have materially changed the near-term economic and financial outlook. Monetary policy expectations in futures markets have shifted markedly. Read more here.
The result is a loss of roughly 11 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil and petroleum liquids to the global market. This represents just over 10% of global supply. At first glance, a 10% disruption may not sound catastrophic.